England does not love coalitions’, as Benjamin Disraeli’s famous comment goes. If Dizzy was wrong about anything, it was this: since the 1852 Aberdeen Government, of which the former prime minister made his remark, Britain has lived through twelve coalitions. They have come in
the form of War Cabinets, National Governments, and most recently the Clegg-Cameron years. We may not have voted for them, but coalitions have caused major realignments of
British politics.
For coalitions to work, you need leaders who can reach across political tribes and have a cross-party appeal. A rare breed. The late Rhodri Morgan was that progressive pluralist of the first decade of Welsh devolution; in large part it was his personal authority that made the Welsh Labour-Plaid Cymru administration work in 2007.
The One Wales Government seems like a distant memory now–after further devolved powers,
Brexit and COVID–but its relevance is becoming more obvious ahead of next year’s Senedd
elections.
Take this week’s Welsh Political Barometer poll findings. With Mark Drakeford’s newfound status
and popularity ratings, Welsh Labour have retained strong support across the constituency and
regional lists, albeit short of a majority in the Senedd with 28 seats. Paul Davies’ Welsh
Conservatives are a solid second to Plaid Cymru’s disappointing third place.
Despite momentum for YesCymru, voters are not showing any indication yet of turning out in droves for Wales’ only major nationalist party, who are projected to win 11 seats. This explains Adam Price’s growing anxiety that surging support for independence has not been felt by his party. Inshort, independence is more popular than Plaid. That isn’t likely to change.
With Welsh Labour short of a majority, alongside the departure of Kirsty Williams and Dafydd Elis
-Thomas from the Senedd, it appears that a Lab-Lib-Independent coalition is off the cards.
Meanwhile, the continuing implosion of Welsh Conservativism means that a Rainbow Coalition
previously dreamt up by Nick Bourne, Mike German and even Adam Price is an ideological
impossibility.
Even after a global pandemic has emphasised the significance of devolution, the people of Wales have not been won over by a single party to lead in Cardiff.
Complications
So, where does this leave us? With just under six months to the Senedd elections, a lot can change.
We are still waiting for the full implications of Brexit to hit us towards the end of the year. There’s
also the prospect of further COVID restrictions that may drive a wedge between Wales and
Westminster once more.
And then there’s the campaign itself: will it focus on the economy post-COVID, Welsh Labour’s
record, or the broader question of Welsh sovereignty? Adam Price will hope it is the latter. But May 2021 is not an election focused on independence. The polls tell us so too.
A minority Welsh Labour administration is a likely possibility, relying on the support of Plaid Cymru and possibly the Liberal Democrats (if they aren’t wiped out completely). A more formal confidence-and-supply deal between Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru might also work. But in today’s turbulent political reality –with Westminster scrambling to discredit the devolved nations and take powers away on a whim–this provides little credibility or stability to any Welsh government.
This is why Wales may indeed be heading for a coalition government in May, despite the party-political complications. Adam Price, for example, has ruled out being a junior partner to Welsh
Labour in such a scenario. A gallant but short-sighted political statement. The first minister has
,however, made his own feelings about nationalism known in recent months and is unlikely to be as pragmatic as his old mentor Rhodri Morgan.
Yet both leaders have found common opposition during the pandemic: Westminster, and more
specifically the Conservative party in Cardiff and London. Especially in recent months, this has been a powerful unifying force to bring Welsh politicians and the public together. After all, recent polling from Beaufort Research for the Western Mail suggests that a Welsh Labour-Plaid Cymru deal is what the Welsh public want if no majority is secured next year. Wales is perhaps different to England when it comes to coalitions, after all.